Windows 8 Adoption: My Predictions

With Windows 8 rumoured to go RTM near mid-year, and released before year end, I thought I would hazard a few predictions about its acceptance/adoption:

The new Windows 8 Start Screen, making use of ...
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

  1. Apple users will hate it. Why? Because it is not from Apple, and nothing cool can from from anyone but Apple.
  2. Linux users will hate it. Why? Because it is from Microsoft, and Microsoft is the root of all that is evil in the universe. Oh, and it has a GUI.
  3. Android users will hate it. Again, because it comes from Microsoft.
  4. Many Microsoft fans will love it, but will be afraid to admit it in front of their “cool” Apple and Android friends.
  5. Microsoft Marketing will fail. I hope this is not the case, but the last half dozen years or so leads me to believe that Microsoft cannot communicate with consumers (except XBox consumers, and gamers are a little different anyway)
  6. Other than on a tablet or other touch device, no one will upgrade to Windows 8 until they absolutely have to (unless I am wrong and Microsoft marketing hits it out of the park).

I don’t think these are particularly high risk predictions!

P.S. – I personally really like Windows 8 and the Metro UI (not crazy about the HTML5 + JavaScript development model, though).

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I want to live in space!

Anybody want to be in the space business? We have to be able to do it better than the government(s).

Lets live in space and mine near earth asteroids till they are gone – solve two problems at once!

Fred’s Laws – How not to write software

This begins a series of posts on Fred’s Laws – basically a set of anti-rules on how not to develop software.

Over the past twenty-odd years, I have seen a lot of software projects crash and burn. Many have been doomed from the start, while many others died slow, painful deaths after hopeful beginnings. Some have finished, and the systems are in production, without ever having realized that the project was a failure. Others should have failed, but managed to struggle through due to the heroic efforts of one or more dedicated (and usually really smart) people.

I have also seen more than a few “failed” projects that were technical successes. We built really cool software. We were on time, on budget, and had good quality. They failed in some other aspect – usually they were business failures for one reason or another.

The environments in which these projects have died have been varied as well. Some tried to make it with no process at all. Some had lots and lots and lots (and lots and lots) of process. I have not seen a great deal of correlation between process and success (well, except that the process I pick for my projects is always successful 😉 ).

When I look back on these catastrophic projects, usually I can see where things went wrong. In fact, most of the time I could see where they were going wrong while it was happening, like watching a car crash in slow motion, but was frequently powerless to avoid the impact. More often than not (in fact, I would be willing to say always), the root cause was something completely avoidable (from a technical or project perspective). Never was it because we chose Windows over Linux (or vice versa), nor because of the programming language we chose, nor because what we set out to do was technically impossible.

As I have written Fred’s Laws (well, written them in my head, none of them are actually written yet!) it occurs to me that they all seem to be straight from the department of the bloody obvious. No rocket science here. If they are this obvious, why even write them down. Well, the reason is that, despite how really obvious all of this is, I watch projects not do them all the time. Most of the time, in fact.

So, stay tuned. I am going to try to post one law per day (or so) until I run out of ideas.

BTW, as a little footnote, I have been involved in a few successful projects along the way. It just always seems to be the ones that failed (and failed spectacularly) that stick out in my memory.