Check out my post entitled Apple Swift – A step in the right direction (or is it?) over in the Vizwik blog
(spoiler alert: I don’t hate it, I just think it solves the wrong problem!)
Deceptive Use of Statistics in Headlines
I was looking at the Apple stock chart on CNN.com, and saw two apparently contradictory headlines listed:
I knew that it was likely just a case of using different comparison time frames, but it still looked amusing!
As I looked at the two articles, my suspicions were validated. The article on the left was describing a Q4-Q1 drop of 33%, not all that surprising given the iPhone 5 launch and holiday season. The second article was describing year-over-year Q1 growth of 25%, which seems pretty good.
Isn’t it nice how you carefully select which stats to use in your headline, in order to drive the perception you want?
As Twain said: Lies, damned lies, and statistics!
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Windows 8 Adoption: My Predictions
With Windows 8 rumoured to go RTM near mid-year, and released before year end, I thought I would hazard a few predictions about its acceptance/adoption:
- Apple users will hate it. Why? Because it is not from Apple, and nothing cool can from from anyone but Apple.
- Linux users will hate it. Why? Because it is from Microsoft, and Microsoft is the root of all that is evil in the universe. Oh, and it has a GUI.
- Android users will hate it. Again, because it comes from Microsoft.
- Many Microsoft fans will love it, but will be afraid to admit it in front of their “cool” Apple and Android friends.
- Microsoft Marketing will fail. I hope this is not the case, but the last half dozen years or so leads me to believe that Microsoft cannot communicate with consumers (except XBox consumers, and gamers are a little different anyway)
- Other than on a tablet or other touch device, no one will upgrade to Windows 8 until they absolutely have to (unless I am wrong and Microsoft marketing hits it out of the park).
I don’t think these are particularly high risk predictions!
P.S. – I personally really like Windows 8 and the Metro UI (not crazy about the HTML5 + JavaScript development model, though).
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Windows 8 tablets secret weapon: OneNote and inking | ZDNet
Windows 8 tablets secret weapon: OneNote and inking | ZDNet.
This has always been my view of Microsoft’s tablet strength, and the competitors’ glaring weakness. For me, without a viable input method (and the onscreen keyboard is not a viable input method for anything more than 140 characters), existing tablets are nothing more than one-way consumption devices.
I, too, used slate tablets + OneNote for all of my note-taking. Not just in meetings, but when I was brainstorming, researching new ideas, collecting and annotating content from the Web, etc.
I have OneNote notebooks with every note I took from 2003 through 2008, all searchable, and all with me all the time. The only reason I stopped was because my slate tablet died a slow death, and all of the newer Tablet PCs I have tried are complete crap for handwriting (mostly because of the introduction of and focus on touch).
However, this is just me, and the way I work. As I discussed in a previous post, this is not the case for millennials (or however you want to label the up-and-coming generation). For my kids, handwriting is awkward and slow. They would much rather type things, even on smartphone keyboards, or onscreen keyboards. Writing is an absolute last resort. Look also at the fact that a number of education departments are now removing cursive writing from the curriculum. For better or worse, in the next generation, handwriting may become almost unknown.
So for Microsoft, Windows 8, tablets, and handwriting, it will ultimately come down to (as it almost always does) answering the question who is your target market?. If Microsoft is going after the same people who buy iPads, and Android slates, then handwriting may not be much of an advantage at all.
In fact, it may just make those people think “more old fashioned stuff from Microsoft”.
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So, Apple deserves a 30% slice of all content you buy?
I was having a discussion this week with an old colleague regarding Apple’s content purchasing policies, and about the crippling of the Kindle, Nook and Google Books apps, as described here.
I was told I was a “Windows Snob”, and that “You and Fortune are criticizing a company for not wanting to send customers to their competitors site in a capitalist society?”
On the one hand, I agree. In a free, capitalist society, Apple has the right to do any damn thing it wants on its platform, to its partners, and to its customers – in the interest of scraping in even more profits.
However, that does not make their actions admirable, or in the best interests of their customers. And it does not mean that consumers should blindly accept this behaviour (though most users of Apple users have drunk so much of the kool-aid that they can no longer even think of life without their Apple products).
The basic premise being argued here is this: does owner/developer/vendor of a platform have the right to only allow you to buy content through them, and the right to a slice of all revenues for content on that platform?
Lets look at a couple of analogies, first to desktop computers, and second to browsers.
Lets think first about computer OS vendors. Would it be acceptable for a computer vendor (Apple or Microsoft) to not let you buy anything on any web site on your computer without giving them a 30% slice? Say Microsoft (always seen as the greedy capitalist in the crowd) tried to make this happen in Windows. How long would it be before consumer groups and the DoJ cried foul, fined them, and made them change the practice?
Lets think now about browsers now. Would it be ok for your web browser to ONLY go to web sites the were registered with and “approved of” by the browser vendor? Or for every e-commerce transaction in your browser to belong to the vendor, and give that vendor a 30% slice? I am pretty sure most users would complain about this.
The fact is, Apple’s policies in this area are flat-out wrong, and are anti-competitive. Any other company would not be allowed to get away with limiting choice the way Apple does, but Apple has much of the world so completely brainwashed with marketing hype that no one even questions them anymore.
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Microsoft is evil, lame, and sucks, right?
WRONG!
Give me a freaking break!
I was just reading a post over on TechCrunch. I do not know why I allow myself to get drawn into reading this drivel, but I always seem to.
When are the anti-Microsoft crowd going to grow up and realize that this is a business, and we are all in it to make money and increase the value of that business.
(including, of course, Google and Apple – but it is somehow ok for them)
For those who do not want to waste time and bandwidth reading the actual post, I will summarize a bit:
- Microsoft participated in the consortium which purchased the “Nortel Patents”, even though MS apparently did not need to
- Microsoft is pursuing licensing agreements with Android phone vendors based on other IP which MS already had
- Microsoft stands to make a lot of money from these agreements
- Microsoft is obviously “lame” for doing this (seriously, who actually uses the term “lame” anymore?)
- Microsoft is doing this (obviously) because they cannot compete with Android by being innovative.
- It would be OK if Apple were doing this, since Apple can do no wrong
So lets take a look at this from a more realistic point of view.
- Microsoft is a business. It is in business to make money, and increase shareholder value. Period.
- Microsoft owns certain patents. A lot of them. It owned this IP before participating in the Nortel deal.
- Microsoft felt that participating in the consortium to buy the Nortel patents was valuable in terms of protecting its IP position.
So far so good. Lets look at the Android situation.
- Android (apparently) infringes upon a number of patents which Microsoft owns. I am not in a position to assess this, but I would suspect there is some validity to the claim or Android phone vendors would not be signing agreements with MS without fighting.
- If this is the case, Google is making money selling something for which they do not have clear intellectual property rights. And this is somehow Microsoft’s fault?
The statement is made that Android is winning because Google “out-innovates” Microsoft. Lets compare the two:
- Google has a mobile phone OS named Android, based on an existing open-source OS, using a programming model which some believe they do not have valid IP rights to, and using a UI paradigm which clearly borrows heavily from another famous mobile phone (though I do think Android improves on it).
- Microsoft, after lagging for a long time, has introduced a new mobile phone OS, written from the ground up, using a unique UI model which is clearly theirs, and with a development environment to which they own the IP, and which is also highly innovative.
Whether WP7 succeeds or fails, and whether you happen to like it or not, from an innovation perspective it is clearly well beyond Android.
So what is Microsoft’s strategy? Well, it appears to be two-pronged.
Having invested heavily in innovation, they are clearly focused on the future of WP7. They intend it to be a success. Whether or not they are successful is more a question of their timing and marketing ability than their level of innovation.
At the same time, Microsoft has quite rightly taken action to preserve the value of its intellectual property. They have also leveraged their ownership of this IP to make money and increase shareholder value.
It seems to me like Microsoft is doing exactly what a business is supposed to do, and doing it well in this case.
Finally, I just have to comment on this little snippet form the post:
“When Apple takes these agressive (sic) approaches on patents, it’s no more right, but at least they can argue that they have a winning product (the iPhone) that they’re trying to protect. Their goal isn’t to get other companies licensing their patents, it’s to run those guys out of the market”
At least he acknowledges that Apple is “no more right” than anyone else in this process. It is the final statement that gets me. So, it is more admirable to crush your competitors and drive them out of business than to license technology to them, allowing both parties to survive and make money?
Of course it is, since we all know it is better to only have one choice in the market, as long as that choice is Apple!
(in case that was too subtle for any of you, that was sarcasm )
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The end of physical books? I hope not!
I was just reading this article on CNN.com, in which author Nicholas Negroponte, founder of One Laptop per Child, foretells the demise of physical books.
I recognize the trend, and can see some reality in what he says. I am a big fan of digital books, and have been for far longer than those who have jumped on the bandwagon with the introduction of the Kindle, iPad, and other such devices. I have been using my slate tablets as ebook readers for 8 years now. The fact that I can carry several thousand books with me when I travel is really convenient (especially for an infomaniac like myself).
However, I absolutely do not advocate the end of physical books, for a number of reasons.
First of all, there is no standard distribution technology for ebooks. I do not want to have to drink Apple’s or Amazon’s koolaid just so I can read the books that I want. And when I have purchased material, I do not want that material tied to a specific device (especially if it is tied to iTunes or Apple in any way). Until there is some level of standardization (beyond PDF), then ebooks should not be the principal format for books.
Secondly, an ebook-only world introduces a 2-tier society – those who can afford ebook-readers, and those who cannot. While I applaud Mr. Negroponte’s efforts in the One Laptop per Child campaign, we are not there yet. Even if we were, laptops are not the optimal platform for reading books. There is no way I would want to read any book of any length on a laptop (tablet maybe, but not a laptop). Right now, people (in much of the world) need nothing more than a library card to have access to a wide variety of books. A switch to an entirely digital world takes that away. I recognize that in the third-world,this is not the case, but I am not convinced that a switch to digital media fixes that problem.
My biggest concern is actually more of a “doomsday” or “conspiracy theory” kind of thing. The strength of physical books is that they are just that – physical. I do not need any device to read them. I do not need electricity. I do not need DRM. I pick up a book, and I read it. What happens in situations of natural disaster, decline of society (for example in war – we are not that far removed from the threat of world war), or even zombie attacks ;-). I personally would prefer that most books continue to exist in a tangible form in addition to a digital one. Then again, I still have a slide rule, just in case all of the computers and calculators fail and I really need to figure something out!
I am also concerned with the greater possibility of distortion and censorship of the written word once it is only digital. We already see some organizations which distribute digital content exerting inappropriate, heavy-handed control over content and “apps” that they will “allow” to be published on their devices. The potential for corporate or political censorship is great in the digital world, though as has been demonstrated in the past, it is extremely hard to completely suppress information on the Internet.
Finally, there is a distinct sensory pleasure to reading a book. It is one of the few escapes I have left from the digital, technological world. When I am reading digital books, I am unfortunately also subject to all of the distractions of the digital world (email, IM, Twitter, etc.) Physical books are an escape from that noise, and i need that.
Just because I can read everything digitally, does not mean that I should read everything that way.
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Gartner Says Android to Become No. 2 Worldwide Mobile Operating System in 2010 and Challenge Symbian for No. 1 Position by 2014
So Gartner weighs in on mobile phone market evolution over the next few years. Points which I found interesting:
- Apple does not control the universe, and in fact its market share will remain pretty much steady over the next few years.
- The only projected significant market growth comes for Android, and it is really significant.
- The imminent release of Windows Mobile 7 will have no positive effect on Microsoft’s market share, and in fact Gartner projects Windows Mobile to drop to only 3.9% market share by 2014 – even though is number of units will almost triple. It will be interesting to see if Windows Mobile 7 is as meaningless as they project.
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So the iPad comes to Canada – whither 3G?
So I see that they have announced iPad availability in Canada for May 28, with pre-orders starting May 10.
I am of two minds about the iPad. On the one hand, I think it is really a consumer-oriented toy, missing a great deal of functionality (for example the ability to take notes with a stylus, etc.). On the other hand, as a glorified eBook reader, with “just enough” other functionality to make it worthwhile, it is a pretty neat gadget, and I do like my gadgets!
The biggest question for me, though, is 3G access. Will Apple cut deals in Canada to provide reasonably priced 3G access for the iPad (like the $29.95 “all you can eat” plan in the US)? Given the greed of Canada’s carriers, I highly doubt it. I currently have a multitouch convertable tablet (that does everything the iPad does, and more, by the way) with a built in 3G card – and the rates here in Canada are absurd for that.
Mobility is key with a device such as the iPad. And without reasonable 3G rates, its 3G (and hence its mobile) capability is pretty much useless.
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RIP to my favourite computer
Well, it has finally happened. My favourite computer (the best I have ever used, actually) has finally died. As I have noted before, for many years now my Motion Computing LE1600 slate has been the centre of my computing toolkit. About the only thing I do not use it for is programming – pretty much everything else I do (or did) on my tablet.
Sadly, after 5 years, the batteries have all died. While I will try to get new batteries, I am not hopeful that I can get them at a reasonable cost.
What is really disappointing to me is that there is nothing out there which which to replace it. Motion Computing has discontinued the LE1600/LE1700, and the only similar product is the J3400 which is overkill for my needs. The offerings from Fujitsu and others in the slate space are all several years old, and far over priced for what they now offer.
And then there are the many new and pending products in the slate space – the iPad, as well as offerings from HP and many others. As slick as some of these new devices look, and as attractive as the pricing is on them, it appears that my worst fears have been realized and most of the new generation of slates are dumbed-down consumer devices, with no real support for ink input which is, as I have said before, crucial to my use of the platform.
Ah well – time to search for batteries.
FredSpace 
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